EU Contestation
Interactive estimates of how intensely parties contested European integration. Select parties below to compare contestation intensity across elections.
Contestation intensity (theta) runs from 0 to 1. Higher values mean a party combined Eurosceptic positioning with sustained attention to European issues in that election. Estimates come from a Bayesian measurement model combining coded manifesto and media texts with expert surveys, covering 25 selected parties in 28 European countries from 1945 to 2022.
This page presents data from Seimel, Tracking a Sleeping Giant: Political Contestation of European Integration, 1945 to 2022, forthcoming at the European Journal of Political Research.
Each dot is the posterior mean for one party in one election, with 95 percent credible intervals. Short ticks at zero mark elections with no measurable contestation. Estimates are distinct per election, so points are not connected by lines.
Selected Parties
posterior mean with 95 percent credible interval no measurable contestation
Data access
EU contestation data
Party contestation trajectories, 1945 to 2022
Posterior party contestation trajectories for 25 selected parties. The Dataverse deposit is forthcoming and not yet public. A copy of the plotted file is available locally below.
Sources
Data sources behind the estimates
The contestation estimates combine coded manifesto and media texts with expert surveys of party positions. If you use the data, please cite the paper.
| Source | Type | Years | Parties |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manifesto Project | Coded manifestos | 1945 to 2022 | 405 |
| PolDem media coding | Coded media coverage | 1972 to 2017 | 98 |
| Ray survey | Expert survey | 1984 to 1996 | 120 |
| Chapel Hill Expert Survey | Expert survey | 1999 to 2024 | 277 |
Party counts and year ranges describe input coverage before estimation. Full references are in the paper.