Peer-Reviewed Articles
Various robust communication effects have been identified, but evidence is overwhelmingly based on artificial survey treatments with limited real-world insight. This study conducted a natural experiment on the impact of the European–Turkey statement closing the Balkan route during the 2015/16 European refugee crisis in Germany. Treatment and control groups were identified based on timing to demonstrate the effect on perceptions of the crisis, asylum attitudes, and policy preferences. Effects are largest immediately following the announcement but decline rapidly, showing political communication can significantly change opinion within a limited time frame.
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The empirical evidence on the link between elite polarization and democracy is mixed, with scholars finding elite polarization increases turnout but decreases democratic satisfaction. This study presents a new individual-level measure of perceived elite polarization that reveals the complexities of individual perceptions beyond macro elite polarization. Results confirm that higher perceptions of elite polarization can engage citizens but reduce satisfaction with democracy. However, higher perceptions also decrease the likelihood of people being simultaneously satisfied with democracy and voting, indicating high perceived elite polarization can be detrimental to democracy.
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Kuhn, T., Seimel, A., & Michaelis, J. M. (2024). A community of fate: Growing European identity in times of polycrisis. Amsterdam Centre for European Studies.